The Oregon Ducks meet the Auburn Tigers on January 10, 2011, in a highly anticipated match-up of high-octane offenses, the Ducks' ugliest uniforms in sports history, and Auburn's controversial, unstoppable Heisman-winning QB.
If history is any indication of what the outcome will be, this could be a very disappointing and lopsided championship game - not disappointing for the victor's fans, but disappointing for those hoping for a good game.
Here are 15 reasons why Auburn could very well run away with this one in a rout:
15. History Says So (as just mentioned):
The last four BCS National Championship Games were all won by SEC teams... in dominating fashion.
The four SEC victories came by a combined 67 points, which translates to an average margin of victory of 16.8 points per game. If history is any indication, then Auburn should win by double-digits.
14. Auburn Can Come from Behind:
We haven't seen the Ducks overcome much adversity this season, but the Tigers have made a living off of coming from behind.
Auburn has trailed in eight of its 13 games this season, but still managed to win those games (some in blowout fashion), including an 18-point victory over Georgia and a 22-point victory over Arkansas.
Even if Auburn stumbles early, they've proven they can rally back and score a boatload of points in the second half.
13. The SEC Championship Game:
This one is pretty simple.
Did you see the way Auburn played against South Carolina in the SEC Championship Game?
That was as impressive of a performance as any team has had all season, and the Gamecocks entered the game with the SEC's No. 1 rushing defense.
12. The Passing Game:
Since Auburn averages 287 yards per game on the ground, it's easy to forget about the team's passing attack. But the Tigers can pass the ball.
Cam Newton throws for about 210 yards per game, and Darvin Adams has come on strong of late, catching seven passes for more than 200 yards and two touchdowns in the SEC Championship Game.
With Oregon trying to key in on the run, Newton and Adams could have a big day through the air.
11. Ball Control:
Oregon doesn't need the ball a lot to score—the Ducks lead the nation in scoring at 49.3 points per game despite having an average time of possession of less than 28 minutes.
But Auburn is one of only a few teams who can keep Oregon off the field.
Of the quality teams the Ducks have faced, only Stanford's rushing attack is comparable to Auburn's sixth-ranked rushing offense.
The Tigers can hold the ball for a big chunk of the game with that run-first mentality, which wouldn't bode well for the Ducks.
10. Oregon Has Played Weak Competition:
Outside of Stanford, Oregon has played a ridiculously weak schedule.
The Ducks have only faced two other teams who are headed to bowl games—Arizona and Tennessee—and those schools have a combined record of 13-11.
In fact, eight of the 12 teams Oregon faced in 2010 finished the regular season at or below .500.
9. 3rd-Down Conversions:
Auburn is one of the nation's best teams at converting on 3rd downs.
The Tigers have converted 77 of 145 3rd down attempts, or 53.1% of the team's tries.
Oregon has converted one more third down (78), but has had 170 chances - 45.9%.
It's a slim advantage, yes, but one that could play a huge role in determining the game's outcome.
8. Nick Fairley (Lombardi Award Winner):
With the exception of Oregon State's Stephen Paea, Oregon hasn't faced a dominant inside presence like Nick Fairley all season. He's one of the most disruptive defensive linemen in the country.
He won't make it easy for Oregon's offense when he's clogging up the middle on running plays or going after Darron Thomas on passing plays.
7. Second-Half Defense:
Auburn's season numbers on defense aren't going to "wow" very many people, but the Tigers have really stepped up on that side of the ball during their two most pivotal games.
In the regular season finale against Alabama, and the SEC Championship Game against South Carolina, Auburn allowed just two field goals in the second half.
That unit could be peaking at just the right time.
6. Auburn is Battle-Tested:
Auburn hasn't strolled its way into the national championship game. The Tigers have had one of the toughest schedules in the nation.
They've faced eight schools who were ranked at some point during the season, they've knocked off five top-20 teams, and they've beaten four top-12 teams, including last year's national champion (Alabama) and the current No. 7 team in the BCS (Arkansas).
5. Auburn's Defense:
Oregon's defense gets a lot more love because it forces turnovers, but Auburn's defense isn't far behind.
The Tigers have forced 18 turnovers and rank 34th in total defense (335.3 yards per game) while the Ducks rank 31st in total defense (331.6 yards per game).
So Auburn's "Achilles heel" may not really be one at all.
4. The Turnover Battle:
Oregon's defense may lead the nation with 36 turnovers, but the Ducks have also turned the ball over 22 times. That's eight more times than Auburn, which has just 14 turnovers in 12 games this season... and Cam Newton has thrown just one interception in the team's last seven games.
3. Auburn's Rushing Attack is not JUST Cam Newton:
Despite popular opinion, Auburn's rushing attack is more than just "let Cam Newton run and see what happens."
Michael Dyer, Onterio McCalebb and Mario Fannin have combined to rush for 2,108 yards and 19 touchdowns... and they've done that on just 310 carries, which translates to 6.8 yards per carry.
2. Auburn's Rush Defense:
Auburn's rushing offense gets a ton of publicity, so the team's rushing defense often gets overlooked, but not many teams can run on the Tigers.
Auburn boasts the nation's No. 7 rushing defense, allowing just 99.7 yards per game, and limiting its opponents to a measly 3.4 yards per carry.
1. The Heisman Winner:
You're probably getting sick of hearing about Cam Newton, but no one has been able to stop him for an entire game all season. Alabama did it for a half, but then he exploded... and not many other teams have even had a chance.
It seems next to impossible to stop this guy, as he's put up video game-like performances all season long.
Why should this game be any different?
This is all based on history, stats and analysis, but anything could happen, and... that's why they play the game.
